NSW weather LIVE updates: Domestic flight cancellations, Sydney train delays as torrential rain batters Australia’s east coast; SES flood warnings issued

If you’ve just joined us, here’s a quick recap of the wild weather gripping Sydney and much of Australia’s east coast:

• Sydney commuters are experiencing lengthy delays after rain damaged equipment at Redfern Station, a crucial stop on Sydney’s rail network.
• The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning for Sydney, the Illawarra and the Central Tablelands, warning residents to expect heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding. Of particular concern is the area between the Blue Mountains and Narooma, where the bureau is expecting intense rainfall may lead to “dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding” from this evening into Saturday morning.
• NSW State Emergency Services have performed seven rescues and answered more than 550 calls since Monday. Premier Chris Minns told a press conference in Sydney this morning he expects more rescues as conditions worse.
• Warragamba Dam – which supplies much of Sydney’s drinking water – is expected to spill on Monday morning as the catchment fills. Water NSW chief executive Andrew George said the dam was currently at 96.3 per cent of capacity, meaning the 100 to 150 millimetres of rain expected would cause the dam to fill and spill.
• Nine schools are closed across the state, including seven public schools and two independent schools.
• Flood warnings are current for the following parts of the state:

As the rain continues to fall and the weather system moves south, rising water levels are causing headaches for authorities across the state.

Northern Beaches Mayor Sue Heins said contractors excavated Narrabeen Lagoon last night to prepare for a deluge of water coming into the catchment, “but it closed again naturally because the lagoon level was roughly the same as the ocean”.

Timing the release of water from the lagoon is a balancing act, since the lagoon needs to reach a level high enough to beat the waves.

Herald photographer Nick Moir was on scene this morning as contractors returned to dig out the channel once again, and Heins said crews would continue to work on keeping the channel open and allowing the water to escape.

Manly Dam has also been lowered to provide more flood storage, Heins said, and Manly lagoon is expected to be opened “sometime today”.

“Unfortunately, the forecast is worsening, and we are expecting heavy rain and local flooding later today, peaking overnight, and into the weekend,” Heins said. “We have crews ready to respond and support SES as required.”

The council and the Manly and Warringah-Pittwater NSW SES units have organised sand and sandbags at the following locations:

• Denzil Joyce Oval car park, Abbott Rd North Curl Curl
• Balgowlah Golf Club car park, Sydney Rd Balgowlah
• Narrabeen Surf Life Saving Club car park.

As Premier Chris Minns said in this morning’s press conference, Warragamba Dam has ticked over 96 per cent capacity and is expected to spill on Monday.

The dam, which supplies most of Sydney’s drinking water, has a capacity of 2065 gigalitres. As of April 1, there was 1992.6 gigalitres of water being held in the dam.

Tens of thousands of Sydneysiders were ordered to evacuate in March 2022 after heavy rains caused Warragamba Dam to spill. The previous March saw floods push 460 gigalitres of water over the dam wall at its peak.

Minns said Water NSW had protocols in place to oversee a controlled spillage of the dam if enough rain fell on the catchment.

Transport authorities are continuing to advise passengers to allow extra time to travel from Sydney’s CBD after rain damaged equipment at Redfern station.

The station is a transport hub connecting six of the city’s nine train lines. Routes affected include:

• T1 City to Berowra via Gordon – in both directions
• T1 City to Emu Plains or Richmond – in both directions

• T2 City to Parramatta or Leppington – in both directions

• T3 City to Liverpool or Lidcombe via Bankstown – in both directions

• T8 City to Macarthur via Airport or Sydenham – in both directions
• T9 Hornsby to North Shore via City – in both directions

Slower boarding times in the wet weather are compounding the delays.

As we’ve touched on, the heavy rains across Australia’s east coast are due to the convergence of two weather systems: a cool pool of air coming from across the Great Australian Bight and a persistent feed of moist air coming from the east.

That convergence is explained by this animation posted by the Bureau of Meteorology yesterday afternoon:

Senior meteorologist Angus Hines told Nine’s Today show the two weather systems were causing “a prolonged wet weather event with significant rainfall and flooding potential”.

“Throughout the next day or day and a half, we could see some areas [around Sydney] clock up 200 to 300 millimetres of rain,” he said. “Some of that’s going to be on top of the rain that has already been falling overnight, so really, it is significant widespread rainfall, [and] a lot more to come.”

The bulk of flights in and out of Sydney Airport’s domestic terminals today have been delayed or cancelled.

Sydney Airport has confirmed its runways remain open despite the deluge but warned travellers to brace for further delays as the day goes on.

The majority of domestic flights scheduled to arrive in Sydney from Melbourne and Brisbane on Friday morning have arrived late.

“Due to storm activity there have been some flight delays and cancellations,” a spokesperson said.
The airport will continue to track the storm cell activity throughout the day.

The winds are expected to get to up to 40 knots later this afternoon which could result in another bout of cancellations if the airport is forced to go to single-runway operations.

Virgin Australia, which has been struggling with its on-time performance all year, confirmed it has cancelled a swathe of services in and out of Sydney Airport today.

“Forecast adverse weather in Sydney today has impacted a number of Virgin Australia’s services. We have had to make a number of changes to our schedule to reduce the impacts across our network,” a spokesperson said.

Virgin’s average delay across all flights blew out to 86 minutes on Friday morning, with some individual flights delayed by up to four hours. The airline has also proactively cancelled some flights scheduled this afternoon as a precaution.

A Qantas Airways spokesperson confirmed its network was also affected and said all passengers have been rebooked on alternate flights later today.

Residents in Lismore will be breathing a sigh of relief today after the Wilsons River peaked lower than expected last night.

The Bureau of Meteorology updated its flood warning for the Wilsons River at 10am AEDT, saying flooding was no longer expected at Lismore.

The river peaked at 3.80 metres through Lismore around 03:00 am this morning, below the minor flood level (4.20 m).

Right now, it’s at 3.55 metres and falling.

To put today’s weather in perspective, NSW has already copped more than a month’s rainfall in one day and more is on the way.

Homing in on Sydney for a moment, we reported earlier that 100 millimetres fell at Sydney Observatory Hill overnight.

The Bureau of Meteorology has also forecast 120 to 200 millimetres of rain for Sydney for the rest of Friday.

But consider this: rainfall at Sydney Observatory Hill was 52.4 millimetres for all of March, which was unusually dry for the time of year.

And even though it was wetter earlier in the year, the weather station in the Sydney CBD still only recorded 129.8 millimetres of rain for the whole of January and 123.2 millimetres in February.
The same thing happened in Melbourne earlier this week – after a dry March, 53 millimetres of rain fell on the city in two hours.

This “it never rains but it pours” pattern is consistent with the expectations of climate scientists.

As University of Melbourne climate scientist Dr Andrew King told me: “We generally expect with climate change that more of the rain will fall in heavy bursts and less in drizzle-type rain.”

If you’ve just joined us, here’s a quick recap of the wild weather gripping Sydney and much of Australia’s east coast:

• Sydney commuters are experiencing lengthy delays after rain damaged equipment at Redfern Station, a crucial stop on Sydney’s rail network.
• The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe weather warning for Sydney, the Illawarra and the Central Tablelands, warning residents to expect heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding. Of particular concern is the area between the Blue Mountains and Narooma, where the bureau is expecting intense rainfall may lead to “dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding” from this evening into Saturday morning.
• NSW State Emergency Services have performed seven rescues and answered more than 550 calls since Monday. Premier Chris Minns told a press conference in Sydney this morning he expects more rescues as conditions worse.
• Warragamba Dam – which supplies much of Sydney’s drinking water – is expected to spill on Monday morning as the catchment fills. Water NSW chief executive Andrew George said the dam was currently at 96.3 per cent of capacity, meaning the 100 to 150 millimetres of rain expected would cause the dam to fill and spill.
• Nine schools are closed across the state, including seven public schools and two independent schools.
• Flood warnings are current for the following parts of the state:

The weather system may be slowly moving south, but the Northern Rivers region continues to cop heavy rain while catchments around Lismore, Ballina and Byron Bay rise.

In some good news for Lismore residents, the Wilsons River at Lismore is currently sitting steady at 3.61 metres – which is below the minor flood level – despite the Bureau of Meteorology warning minor flooding was possible last night.

There are still plenty of spots in the area where there is water on the road, and the local NSW State Emergency Service is urging residents not to drive through floodwater.

Yesterday’s storms took out perimeter fences at Byron Bay Wildlife Sanctuary, damaged enclosures and buildings and forced the relocation of the animal hospital to higher ground.

“The threat of more rain hangs over us,” the sanctuary said in a social media post.

Minor flood warnings are also in place for the Richmond River at Casino and Coraki, and the Gwydir River in the Northern Tablelands.

Rain has caused damage to train equipment at Redfern Station, a crucial stop on Sydney’s rail network.

Transport authorities say passengers should expect some delays while heading through the station.

“Trains are running frequently but, trips may take longer than normal, and stops may change at short notice,” Transport for NSW wrote on social media.

The issue is affecting two signalling systems at the station. Delays of about 15 minutes are expected.