Dorset Tories tell Sunak’s MPs to ‘stay away’ in local election battle

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Spencer Flower, Dorset’s Conservative council leader, has a simple edict when it comes to defending his blue fiefdom from a Liberal Democrat insurgency: don’t let Rishi Sunak’s disunited MPs anywhere near the campaign.

Most Tory candidates in the county are campaigning as “Local Conservatives” determined to keep their distance from the party’s problems at Westminster. The embattled prime minister does not feature on their leaflets.

Flower says: “I was asked by an MP what help he could give us and I said: ‘Stay away — that’s the best thing. You’ve got no added value. It’s local elections. I want to keep it local’.”

He cannot remember the last time Sunak came to Dorset.

The council leader is battling to stop the Lib Dems from taking power in this solidly Tory county in southern England, in what will be the most keenly watched “blue wall” battle in local elections on May 2.

Dorset council’s Conservative leader Spencer Flower, (L) and his Lib Dem challenger Edward Morello — Dorset council’s Conservative leader Spencer Flower, left, and his Lib Dem challenger Edward Morello

Speaking in the Olive and Oak restaurant in Verwood, 10 miles north of Bournemouth, Flower, a former businessman and self-described “achievoholic”, says: “I want us to concentrate on our achievements and our ambitions for the next five years.”

It is a survival strategy being adopted by Tory candidates across England and Wales for the local elections, as they try to escape the dead weight of the party’s national reputation. The FT poll tracker puts the Conservatives on 23 per cent, 20 points behind Labour.

In the run-up, speculation is mounting that, should Sunak’s party crash on May 2, perhaps losing 500 council seats, desperate Tory MPs might rise up and try to topple the prime minister.

In Dorset, famed for its Jurassic fossil coast, Flowers hopes local voters will reward “Local Conservative” candidates for their record on issues such as budget controls, supporting new homes for local people, and recycling.

Flower’s group has 43 out of 82 seats on Dorset Council, a slim majority. He is confident he will hold on, but it would be a gravity-defying feat. The Lib Dems have 27 seats, Greens five and Labour two.

For Sir Ed Davey’s party, Dorset is the biggest prize in the local elections. If the Lib Dems can take control of the council, it will be another bridgehead for an assault on seats at the general election in Tory heartlands in the south and south-west of England.

Edward Morello, Lib Dem candidate in the parliamentary seat of West Dorset, believes the electoral map could be painted yellow across what might be termed “the near south-west”, a belt of seats stretching from the Cotswolds through Somerset to the south coast.

“It’s a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in almost every seat,” he says, sitting by The Cobb, the historic harbour in the small port of Lyme Regis. “After the election could see a bridge of Lib Dem seats from coast to coast.”

In the past, the Lib Dems were typically stronger in the far south-west, such as Brexit-voting Cornwall and Devon, but recently they have been resurgent in wealthier territory closer to London, including Somerset, Gloucestershire and Dorset.

Morello, who works in renewable energy, says the demographics in these areas have changed in favour of the Lib Dems, with younger parents moving their families out of London and often working from home for part of the week.

“Why wouldn’t you be here?” he says pointing out at the shimmering English Channel.

Lyme Regis: the local economy relies heavily on tourism © Jim Wileman/FT

His opponent at the general election will be the incumbent Tory MP Chris Loder, a farmer’s son and former railway worker, who also stresses his “localness” and understanding of a constituency whose economy relies heavily on agriculture and tourism.

“I’ve never taken anything for granted,” says Loder, sipping orange juice and soda water in the Royal Lion pub in Lyme and reflecting on his 14,106 majority at the last election. He says his job is to win over undecided voters.

Loder reckons the Lib Dems are excessively confident and that the anti-Tory vote could split between them, Labour and the Greens, who are strong in Lyme. He argues that the Lib Dems have also been too keen to support big housing developments.

But he admits that divisions in the party at Westminster and scandals over MPs’ conduct are a problem. “Some people are frustrated by what they see on the news and so on. I just wish they could see some of what isn’t reported — the hard work that we do.”

Tory MP for Dorset West Chris Loder says he has ‘never taken anything for granted’, but believes the Lib Dems are overconfident © Jim Wileman/FT

Belinda Bawden, Green representative for Lyme on Dorset Council, says the views of traditional Tory voters living amid the green hills on the south coast are increasingly disconnected with those being espoused by some rightwing Conservative MPs.

“A lot of life-long Conservative voters don’t recognise their party any more,” she says. “The national party has gone far, far too far, to the right.”

Bawden has summed up Sunak’s dilemma in a nutshell. Sunak is facing pressure from rebel MPs to shift to the right, but in places such as Dorset a gentler form of traditional conservatism may be more successful. On May 2, his ability to cope with this dilemma will be tested at the ballot box.