10-year Treasury yield shoots higher after May payrolls top expectations

The yield on the 10-year Treasury surged Friday as investors assessed a strong nonfarm payrolls number for May that fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as soon as expected.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped nearly 14 basis points to 4.416%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.855% after rising by roughly 14 basis points. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 272,000 in May, up from 175,000 in April. That also surpassed a Dow Jones consensus estimate for 190,000. The unemployment rate, however, ticked up to 4% for the first time since January 2022.

The data comes after ADP’s private payrolls report showed that companies added 152,000 jobs in May, below the 175,000 estimate.

Many investors had hoped that Friday’s data would indicate that the labor market and economy are slowing, convincing the Fed to consider easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates.

The Fed is due to meet next week, but is widely expected to keep rates unchanged then as well as at their July meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed that traders are pricing in a 68% chance for a rate cut for September.

The European Central Bank on Thursday moved to cut interest rates for the first time since 2019, even as inflationary pressures linger. Questions remain about whether there will be additional cuts this year, and if so, how many.