How Georgia’s EU dream is being eroded by ‘foreign influence’ law

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Good morning. News to start: European companies operating in Russia are scrambling to comply with new sanctions rules from Brussels that remove loopholes — forcing them to instead register their activities with EU regulators.

Today, we have a dispatch from Georgia where protests against a new “foreign influence” law condemned by the EU continue to rage, and our man in the Balkans explains how Croatia’s new government could be formed.

Kremlin-esque

Mass protests against a Georgian draft law on “foreign influence” have continued for the second week in a row in Tbilisi, writes Anastasia Stognei.

Thousands of people marched through the city over the past days, waving EU and Georgian flags and demanding the withdrawal of the draft bill. Protesters clashed with police, who fired tear gas.

Context: The initiative would force NGOs and media that receive more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad to register with the Ministry of Justice, or face fines. Critics fear it resembles legislation the Kremlin uses to suppress dissent, and that it could pave the way for criminal prosecution.

The stakes are at their highest for both political elites and society. The ruling Georgian Dream party needs the law to clamp down on opponents ahead of elections in October.

“Passing this law is a question of survival for the Georgian dream . . . The party needs a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections, but according to all the polls it is not in their cards,” said Kornely Kakachia of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University.

“For the party, the civil society and the media are a problem in the upcoming elections. There shouldn’t be anyone to challenge the results,” Kakachia added. 

But for Georgians, the law could end the prospect of a long-desired EU membership and bring their country closer to Russia.

“If the law is passed, it will lead to the exodus of young people, brain drain, and the de facto destruction of the entire NGO sector,” said Vano Chkhikvadze of the Civil Society Georgia Foundation in Tbilisi.

Brussels has made it clear that the law threatens Georgia’s membership aspirations, which are supported by almost 90 per cent of its citizens.

EU foreign ministers yesterday expressed “concerns” about the law, the bloc’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said, adding that the European Commission would issue an “oral report” on the situation.

“I repeat: it is incompatible with the European Union’s values,” Borrell added.

Georgian Dream, widely believed to be under the control of pro-Kremlin oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, would likely be pleased with thwarting the country’s EU ambitions. Among the conditions for further EU integration are reducing the power of oligarchs and strengthening civil society and human rights.

Chart du jour: Old masters

Europe’s carmakers have been hit less hard by a slump in electric car sales — as they are lagging behind on electrification. But the question is how long this breathing space will last, writes Lex.

Above the law

Croatia’s President Zoran Milanović has found himself disqualified from the race to become the country’s next prime minister by the Constitutional Court in Zagreb.

But Milanović is proceeding to cobble together a majority anyway, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Milanović, a former social democrat who already served as premier, threw his hat in the ring to try to unseat centre-right incumbent Andrej Plenković, causing many to scratch their heads. The top court warned of a possible constitutional crisis, as campaigning is illegal for a sitting president — as is angling for the premiership.

Milanović has accused Plenković, his decades-old arch rival, of running a corrupt regime. Plenković has said the president is a loose cannon that acts in Russia’s interests.

In hotly contested snap elections triggered by Milanović himself, neither candidate gained an outright majority, although Plenković came much closer to it, with 61 of a possible 151 seats.

The Constitutional Court has said it would annul any attempt by Milanović to form a government. “A person who acts contrary to the constitution and the decisions of the Constitutional Court cannot be a mandate holder. No one can benefit from unconstitutional behaviour,” the court’s president, Miroslav Šeparović, told reporters.

But Milanović rejected the court’s decision as preparations for a coup d’état, and said it was up to parliament to decide.

“Don’t be afraid,” he said. “Only the parliamentary majority decides who will be the mandate holder.”

Plenković, meanwhile, has moved on. He has started coalition talks with the nationalist Homeland Movement, which came in third.

What to watch today

1. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk hosts British premier Rishi Sunak and Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg.

2. European parliament to vote on reform of the EU’s debt and deficit rules.

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