Cramer says hot CPI data may not reflect the reality of inflation, citing trends in key categories

CNBC’s Jim Cramer questioned whether the hotter-than-expected consumer price index data accurately represents the state of inflation, saying Wall Street’s wave of selling on Wednesday could have been a mistake.

“Trillions of dollars were indeed lost today under the assumption that inflation’s way hotter than we thought, and after examining the numbers underneath, considering the companies involved and the prices they charge, I think that may not be true,” he said. “These headline CPI numbers do not reflect reality as I see it.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI is a key inflation metric — a broad measure of the cost of goods and services across the economy. The figure rose 0.4% for the month, which set the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.5%. Dow Jones economists had expected a 0.3% increase, or a 3.4% rate for the year. The three major indexes tanked on Wednesday in response to the news.

Cramer first pointed to the 0.9% month-over-month increase in the price of meat, poultry, fish and eggs, with the latter alone climbing 4.6%. He said that may not be an inflation issue, but instead reflects a current severe outbreak of avian flu, which has infected chickens as well as cows. The flu may have skewed the inflation measure, noting that Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the country, had to kill 1.6 million chickens and halt production at a plant in Texas.

He also said he thinks the energy index’s 1.1% increase, with gasoline up 1.17%, “has nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply.” He cited fighting in the Middle East and the U.S.’s effort to stop Russian oil from hitting the market, saying these increases could be temporary.

“The premise I want to question is the accuracy of the index itself, the CPI … I think it’s suspect,” Cramer said. “I’m not talking about the absolute numbers, I’m talking about the trend lines, because the trend lines suggest that selling in response to this report may have been and could be a mistake.”