Ukraine is given a reprieve by the U.S., but faces race against the clock over weapons supplies

Ukraine received a vital reprieve from the U.S. at the weekend after the House of Representatives passed a $61 billion foreign aid package for Kyiv following months of delays and objections from hardline Republicans.

The bill, which includes additional aid for Israel and Taiwan, now passes to the Democratic-majority Senate which is expected to approve the legislation this week before it’s passed to President Joe Biden to sign into law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked U.S. lawmakers in the House for passing the bill, saying it “will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.”

But on social media platform X Sunday, Zelenskyy urged the Senate to pass the bill as quickly as possible, warning that “the time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package’s approval and our warriors’ strengthening, must be as short as possible.”

Time is of the essence for Ukraine, which has been pleading for more air defense systems, artillery and ammunition as its forces struggle to hold back a tide of Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine.

Defense analysts argue that while the funding could help breathe new life and morale into Ukraine’s beleaguered military campaign, aid and supplies must be sent to Ukraine immediately.

“Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for U.S. security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly,” analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank noted.

“Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints,” the ISW said in analysis published Sunday.

In the immediate term, Ukraine’s priority is to replenish artillery as well as air defense systems and missile stocks that have been depleted by recent Russian airstrikes, particularly those targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Matthew Savill, the military sciences director at London-based defense think tank RUSI, noted that while procurement of new materiel might create a lag, the Pentagon said some military hardware had been pre-prepared for donation to Ukraine in a bid to minimize delivery time.

“It’s unlikely this will create immediate parity with the Russian volume of fire, but it will help close the gap,” Savill said.

Analysts note that while this latest aid tranche will undoubtedly buoy Ukrainian spirits and boost its military operations, long-term funding for Kyiv remains a bone of contention. They point out that further U.S. aid is not guaranteed, particularly given the uncertain outcome of the presidential election later this year.

“The package will be welcome for the Ukrainian military … but the main point is that this funding can probably only help stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025,” RUSI’s Savill noted.

Certainty on funding through 2024 and 2025 will help the Ukrainians plan their defense for this year, according to Savill, especially if European supplies of ammunition also materialize, but “further planning and funds will be required for 2025, and we have a U.S. election between now and then,” he said.

It’s uncertain whether U.S. aid for Ukraine would continue under a second term for former President Donald Trump, who has issued ambiguous and unsubstantiated statements on Ukraine and how he would end the war within 24 hours.

Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House and a senior sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, supports the proposal to use billions of dollars’ worth of frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine and said the latest aid does not change the fact that Ukraine will continue to need significant amounts of funding.

“Note passage of the $61 billion House package does not change the narrative in terms of doubts still about long term Western funding for Ukraine,” Ash said in emailed comments Monday. 

“Ukraine’s financing to ensure victory in war and successful reconstruction can only be assured if the West pulls its finger out and allocated the $330 billion of immobilised assets to Ukraine,” he added.

Before the House approved the aid package last Saturday, senior Western defense officials painted a bleak picture of Ukraine’s artillery and ammunition shortages in the east of the country. They warned that troops were resorting to rationing their use of shells.

One top U.S. general told Congress earlier in April that Russia was firing five artillery shells for every one fired by Ukrainian forces, and that this disparity could double in the coming weeks.

The mismatch in weaponry and manpower in eastern Ukraine — an area that has been likened to a “meat grinder” due to Russia’s tactics of sending large numbers of newly mobilized and inexperienced soldiers to the frontline in a bid to overwhelm Ukrainian forces — has enabled Russian forces to make gains in recent months, furthering their bid to occupy the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Russia has lambasted the latest U.S. aid package for Ukraine, claiming that it will only lead to more carnage in the conflict.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday that the U.S. House of Representatives’ approval of further aid to Ukraine “will make the United States of America richer, further ruin Ukraine and result in the deaths of even more Ukrainians, the fault of the Kyiv regime,” Russian news agency Tass reported. Peskov’s counterpart in the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said the new aid package would “aggravate the global crisis.”

Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky was particularly scathing about the funding, saying it was “nothing to celebrate” and that Ukraine “will function a little longer, more money will end up in their pockets, more weapons will be stolen, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians will go into the meat grinder.”

“But the inglorious end of the Kyiv regime is inevitable, regardless of this new [aid] package and all the futile efforts of their supporters in the US and NATO,” he claimed.