Getty Fernando Tatís Jr.
Strikeout props rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB strikeout prop bets along with the homerun prop of the day for April 16. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Props
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140, FanDuel)
Dylan Cease is set to take the mound for the San Diego Padres against a formidable Milwaukee Brewers team that’s had a strong start to the 2024 season. However, the prop line for Cease’s strikeouts seems a bit high, despite my belief in his talent. He’s gone under this number in all 3 of his starts this season, notably against teams with higher strikeout rates, unlike the Brewers. Last season, he fell below this mark in 70% of his starts with the Chicago White Sox.
The Brewers are known for their ability to put the ball in play, particularly against right-handed pitchers, ranking 10th lowest in the MLB in strikeout percentage (20.6%). Cease’s knack for inducing swings and misses has dipped from last year, dropping from 31.0% to 29.1%.
Although Cease is generally a strikeout pitcher, I trust the Brewers to maintain their trend of making contact and putting the ball in play consistently this season. Our model predicts Cease to record 6.7 strikeouts tonight.
Jared Jones Over 6..5 Strikeouts (+128, FanDuel)
Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates is poised to face the New York Mets, a team that has struggled against right-handed pitching this season. 7 out of the 9 projected starters in the Mets lineup have a strikeout rate of 20% or higher against righties.
Jones has consistently met this strikeout mark in all 3 of his starts this season, averaging an impressive 8.33 strikeouts per game. Batters have found it challenging to make contact against Jones, as he ranks among the league leaders in strikeout percentage with 34.8% and boasts an impressive 12.50 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Notably, Jones has been efficient in going the distance, throwing 80 or more pitches and pitching 5 or more innings in all 3 of his starts while issuing only 2 walks total. Our model projects Jones to comfortably exceed the prop line, anticipating him to record 8.3 strikeouts against the Mets.
MLB Homerun Prop of the Day
Fernando Tatis to Hit a Home Run (+370, FanDuel)
For today’s Dinger Tuesdays on FanDuel, my home run pick is Fernando Tatis of the San Diego Padres. Tatis faces a favorable matchup against left-handed pitcher Wade Miley of the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2023, Tatis performed exceptionally well against left-handed pitchers, boasting a 152 wRC+, a 35.3% fly ball rate, and a 38.2% high contact rate. These stats align favorably with Miley’s numbers, as he allowed a 38.3% fly ball rate and a 34.5% hard contact rate against right-handed batters. Such strong metrics bode well, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Our model assigns Tatis a 22% chance of hitting a home run tonight.
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