Croatia’s centre-right ruling party on track to come out ahead after snap poll

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Croatians look to have produced a tight result in a general election called by President Zoran Milanović, whose stance has stoked fears in European capitals about another EU and Nato member state adopting a more Russia-friendly position.

Milanović, a maverick leftwing politician formerly affiliated with the Social Democratic party, dissolved Croatia’s parliament and triggered Wednesday’s snap vote — and took the unusual step of campaigning to move to the more powerful post of prime minister.

According to an Ipsos exit poll published by local media, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s centre-right HDZ party was on track to win 58 seats out of a possible 151. Such a result would mean HDZ is unlikely to be able to govern alone, forcing complex coalition talks or the prospect of an unstable minority government in the Adriatic nation of 4mn people.

A coalition of leftist parties spearheaded by Milanović was forecast to win 44 seats, while the nationalist Homeland Movement was set to take 13.

“HDZ did not enjoy smooth sailing with some of its coalition partners in the past, which increases the risks of government instability over the next parliamentary term,” said Mario Bikarski, east and central Europe analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

“A minority government, either HDZ- or SDP-led, would be even more unstable and unlikely to last its full term.”

The election campaign was dubbed a battle of “King Kong vs Godzilla” by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, a German political think-tank. Plenković has depicted the flamboyant president as a Russian stooge, while Milanović has hit back at the premier over allegations of corruption.

Plenković said on Sunday that “Milanović is pushing Croatia into the Russian world at a time when Russia has been ravaging Ukraine for two and a half years”.

Echoing fellow Ukraine-sceptic leaders in Hungary and Slovakia, Milanović last week claimed that “the conflict in Ukraine is not our conflict”. He said that Plenković had “tried to drag us into” Russia’s war by training Ukrainian soldiers, a plan the Croatian parliament has blocked.

As prime minister, Plenković has led the country since 2016 and ushered Croatia into the eurozone and the border-free Schengen area.

The constitutional court has stipulated that Milanović must quit as head of state in order to run for the country’s premiership. But he has not stepped down, pledging only to leave the presidential office if he secures a governing majority.

Milanović, who has constantly polled as the country’s most popular politician, served as premier during a rare leftwing interregnum a decade ago. The HDZ, which grew out of the nationalist forces that formed during the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, has ruled the Balkan nation for most of the three decades since.

Milanović has opposed Nato expansion, labelling the accession of Finland and Sweden a “very dangerous adventure” and “charlatanry”. He has called on the west to consider Russia’s security interests and has spoken against Croatian participation in bolstering Nato’s eastern flank.

For his part, Plenković’s government has struggled to shake off the taint of graft as a number of people have left his administration over the years amid corruption concerns.

If Plenković is unable to return to power, the centre-right European People’s party stands to lose a vote among leaders who back the re-election of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Friedrich Neumann Foundation analyst Dušan Dinić wrote that the election tussle “between two alpha males . . . could determine the outcome not only of these parliamentary elections, but also of the European elections in June and the [Croatian] presidential election in December”.