Why Tusk could help mend the Franco-German relationship

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Good morning. A scoop to start: Russia’s “dark fleet” of oil tankers breaching western sanctions are relying on insurance that would not cover the costs of a big oil spill, exposing European and Asian coastal states to huge liabilities for any clean-up.

Today, our Warsaw and Paris bureau chiefs explore Donald Tusk’s efforts to reclaim Poland’s spot at the EU foreign policy top table — and help mend the badly damaged Franco-German relationship at the same time — while our man in the Balkans explains the fallout from Croatia’s dissolved parliament.

Have a good weekend.

Three’s a crowd

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will put his mediation skills to the test on Friday when he meets in Berlin with the squabbling Franco-German duo of President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, write Raphael Minder and Leila Abboud. 

Context: Since taking office in December, Tusk has sought to put Poland back at the heart of EU policymaking, after eight years of self-imposed ostracisation under the previous rightwing government of the Law and Justice (PiS) party. 

With war raging in neighbouring Ukraine, Poland has urged the EU not only to step up its military deliveries to Kyiv but also to shift its geopolitical focus towards Warsaw and its fragile eastern flank. 

Poland wants to revive the so-called Weimar Triangle, a three-way alliance created in the 1990s ahead of Poland’s EU accession, but mostly left dormant since. Last month, French, German and Polish ministers held a Weimar meeting outside Paris, while Tusk shuttled between Paris and Berlin, where he is also trying to mend relations seriously undermined by PiS’s criticism of Germany.

“More and more attention will be paid to the triangle of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw,” Tusk said after a meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington. “In my opinion, these three capitals have the task and the power to mobilise all of Europe.” 

Paris is equally enthusiastic about reviving the Weimar format, because Tusk is seen as a valuable ally who may convince the more cautious Scholz to do more for Ukraine.

Tusk’s presence may “help catalyse the conversation and take off the pressure” between the frequently squabbling Macron and Scholz, said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Brigitte Klinkert, an MP from Macron’s party, said the three-way meeting was “the pertinent one for today’s challenges” as the EU tries to advance on “big strategic issues”.

Tusk has refereed many battles between EU partners as a former European Council president. One of Tusk’s biggest coups was forcing a deal about Greece’s future in the eurozone in July 2015. He refused to allow Germany’s Angela Merkel and Greece’s Alexis Tsipras leave the room, even after 14 hours of talks.

Today, Macron and Scholz will meet first, before Tusk joins them for a press conference and three-way discussions.

Chart du jour: Gas myths

Can the EU give up once and for all its addiction to “cheap” Russian gas? Michael Stoppard argues that Russian gas was never that cheap to begin with.

Double election

Croatia will hold a snap general election a few weeks before a pan-European vote, after an opposition alliance formally requested the dissolution of parliament over alleged corruption at the highest government levels, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has been accused of graft, which he and his HDZ party deny. While the Adriatic country of 4mn is hardly a political heavyweight, Plenković enjoys some seniority in Brussels after seven years in his job, and is known as a strong backer of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Plenković now faces a vote that will also help determine his fate at the European elections in June, in which his ruling party runs as a member of von der Leyen’s European People’s party (EPP). In the 2019 elections, his HDZ won four out of 11 Croatian seats in the European parliament.

President Zoran Milanović called the current term of the Plenković government “four years of dishonour”, and told media he would announce the exact election date later today.

The Croatian opposition will run in a coalition, its parties have said, with a vote to take place some time in the next two months according to law.

HDZ has held power for most of the time since Croatia broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991, alternating with the Socialists. Plenković came to power in 2016.

Opinion polls show HDZ in the lead, predicting about a quarter of the electorate’s support. The Socialists are second with just under 20 per cent, followed by several parties hovering around 10 per cent.

What to watch today

1. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell attends US-EU energy council in Washington, DC.

2. Ursula von der Leyen inaugurates European Commission office in Nuuk, Greenland.

3. Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski speaks at the Warsaw European Conversation.

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• Cracking open the door: China has given visa-free access to visitors from a number of European countries in a bid to boost tourism.

• All hail the spread: The gap between Italy’s and Germany’s borrowing costs has collapsed, indicating rosy prospects for Italy’s economy.