Sjarif Goldstein: Pac-12 seems to be sinking to UH’s level

Seeing the college conferences’ seemingly continuous shuffling these past few years has taken me back to the Aughts and reminded me why I should never say something will never happen.

June Jones and Colt Brennan had the UH football team riding so high after the 2007 season that those dreams of Hawaii getting an invitation to join the Pac-10 — as it was known then — were gaining momentum among fans. “We’re better than most teams in the Pac-10,” they’d say. Or “We have a national fanbase!” Or my favorite: “We provide the Pac-10 a gateway to Asia.”

I was what some would call a “hater” — not because I actually “hated,” but because the most fanatical of fans interpret the mere asking of a question as “hate.” Questions like “Do you realize that the Washington team that perhaps the best UH team in school history needed a furious comeback to beat at home to complete a perfect (regular) season finished last in the Pac-10?” and “Do you realize even in the booming June Jones era the Warriors are only 3-5 against the Pac-10?” and “Do you know about the internet and that the Pac-10 surely has the ability to reach out to ‘Asia’ without Hawaii serving as an intermediary?”

I should count myself fortunate that I didn’t have a column back then, I guess. I no doubt would have mocked the idea that Hawaii could find itself in the Pac-10, so my “hate” was only heard in the newsroom by a few colleagues, and now I’d be … well, “eating crow” is perhaps too strong a way to put it — there’s no invitation in the mail yet — but I’d at least have to admit the idea had turned out not to be as outlandish as I had thought. (Waitaminit. This is essentially what I’m admitting now. Why am I writing a column about how I was wrong 15 years ago about something almost no one had any idea I was wrong about? Well, I’m a third of the way in now, and I’m no quitter.)

If you haven’t heard, Hawaii is one of the top candidates for Pac-12 — as it’s known now — expansion. The odds are still fairly long (8% to 9%, according to bookmakers), but a year ago they were probably less than 1%, so they’re moving in the right direction. What’s given UH’s dream some steam is the defection of three Pac-12 programs to other major conferences. USC and UCLA are leaving for the Big Ten. (Now there’s a conference that sticks to its guns. Penn State became its 11th member 30 years ago, and the league will soon be up to 16 members, but the “Big Ten” it will stay.) Then word came last week that Colorado is headed back to the Big 12, the conference it abandoned to help turn the Pac-10 into the Pac-12 waaaaaaay back in 2011.

Suddenly the Pac-12 needs to add three members to maintain “naming integrity” (I just made that term up), and it also is in the midst of negotiating its next TV contract, one that will surely be smaller than it was when the conference had two teams in the country’s second-largest city.

Of course, the Pac-12 could decide to go the route of the Big Ten and abandon naming integrity. It wouldn’t even be just the second college conference to do so. The Big 12 hasn’t had 12 members since 2010. It was set to reclaim its naming integrity in 2024 — with four teams joining this year and Oklahoma and Texas leaving next summer — before it decided to add Colorado for 2024 as well. There’s also the Atlantic Coast Conference, which includes a school more than 500 miles inland (Louisville) plus “sort of” member Notre Dame another 200 miles from the shore.

The Pac-12 could decide it’s comfortable at nine schools. They can have an eight-game conference slate, which allows the teams to play each other each year but still schedule four nonconference games. The question is whether it can stay at nine schools. The Big 12 could have eyes for Arizona or Utah, or could take both as well as Arizona State and get up to 16 teams. Since the announcement that the Los Angeles schools were Big Ten-bound, there’s been speculation that Washington and Oregon could follow. Those moves might be even more likely if those schools view the Pac-12 as a sinking ship now that Colorado is fleeing.

If all those schools leave, the Pac-Whatever would be left with just Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State. Could they fill that out with San Diego State (big city and established success in football and basketball), Boise State and Fresno State (established football programs) and UNLV and Hawaii (sizable populations with travel appeal)? UH also offers two other perks — the exemption that allows visiting teams to play an extra game, and an exclusive late-night TV time slot for home games. Oddsmakers have Colorado State, Tulane and SMU with better odds to join the Pac-12, but I don’t see it. None of those schools have enough of a history of success and have little else to offer.

One other possibility: Could the Mountain West absorb the Pac-12 remnants and become a 16-team league? It may seem crazy for the mid-major to devour the power conference, but I’m old enough to remember when the smaller-circulation Honolulu Star-Bulletin shockingly bought the larger-circulation Honolulu Advertiser, which came out of nowhere.

No conference is showing its hand and no commissioner can be taken at their word, but one thing that seems certain is that the game of musical chairs has not stopped and more schools are looking for a seat. With every move, Hawaii’s chances of getting an invite to join the Pac-12 likely increase, even if it’s not quite the Pac-12 that fans envisioned joining 15 years ago.