Roughly four years ago, in October 2019, Tesla’s entire market cap was $50 billion. Today, Tesla is worth $700 billion. In November 2021, Tesla’s market cap hit $1.2 trillion. At that point, Elon’s net worth briefly topped $340 billion. That made him the richest human in modern history, edging out John D. Rockefeller.
Elon Musk’s net worth is currently $206 billion. Jeff Bezos is the second-richest person in the world with a net worth of $179 billion. When we talk about Elon Musk’s net worth, it’s important to remember that his fortune comes from two sources:
- 1) His 43% stake in the privately held SpaceX.
- 2) His 24% stake in the publicly traded Tesla.
When SpaceX last raised money in December 2023, it did so at a valuation of $180 billion. Therefore, Elon’s 43% stake is worth =
$77 billion
As I type this article, Tesla has a market cap of $700 billion. Therefore, Elon’s 24% stake is worth =
$168 billion
$77 + $168 = $245 billion. So why is he currently worth $206 billion? The answer is complicated, but in short: debt. Elon has pledged around 60% of his Tesla shares as collateral for funds to purchase things like… Twitter.
We recently wrote about a hypothetical alternate reality where Bill Gates just became the world’s first trillionaire thanks to Microsoft’s market cap hitting $2.9 trillion. The premise of that article was that at one point, Bill owned 45% of Microsoft, and in a not-totally-unrealistic world, he could still own at least 35% (instead of just 1.4%). Bill would be a trillionaire if he owned 35% of Microsoft today. In that same article, we discussed how even if Steve Jobs were alive and still owned his original 20% stake in Apple that he held in the early 1980s, he would be nowhere near trillionaire status.
But what about Elon? What would it take for Elon Musk to become a trillionaire?
(Photo by Maja Hitij/Getty Images)
What Would It Take To Hit $1 Trillion?
The following circumstances represent the most likely way for Elon Musk to become a trillionaire:
#1: Tesla’s market cap hits $3.4 trillion. Elon’s $24% stake would be worth $840 billion at that level. A reminder that Tesla’s current market cap is $700 billion. So, we’re talking about a 5x+ increase in value compared to the present. That’s not a crazy scenario. Tesla’s current value is more than 10x its value four years ago.
#2: SpaceX’s value (either private or as a public company) hits $500 billion. Assuming he maintains a 40% stake at that level, his shares would be worth $200 billion.
Combined, his two stakes would be worth $1.04 trillion. Rounding out for some debt and other assets, he would comfortably be a trillionaire.
A significant caveat is that all the net worth numbers we just mentioned are pre-tax. If Tesla and SpaceX continue to grow, Elon’s pre-tax paper net worth will grow, but whenever he sells any shares, he’ll have a capital gain and will owe the IRS a cut. If he decided to sell every single share of Tesla and SpaceX the day he hit $1 trillion… and if there was a market that could handle such a massive influx of shares for sale… Elon would end up with a net worth closer to $500 billion.
That said, if, in some insane world, SpaceX does grow to a $500 billion valuation AND Tesla grows to a $3.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk will officially be the world’s first trillionaire.
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