Carlton’s season is on the brink, and the next month could decide it

Sam Walsh, who had been super in that elimination final, was smothered by Jordon in this game, as Grundy outpointed an improved Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning in the ruck.

So, a postcard perfect beginning quickly went ugly, with the upshot that the Blues, who were humming at 4-0 and still on the march a month ago at 5-1, are wobbling and now among the cohort fighting for a spot in the eight.

“Not going there mate,” said Michael Voss, when asked if injuries were an excuse for the 52-point drubbing. “We had a team out there that could get the job done … it presents some challenges, but it’s not insurmountable [the injuries].”

The coming month could well define Carlton’s 2024 campaign. They play a suddenly dangerous Gold Coast at Docklands, then Port Adelaide away, Essendon (King’s Birthday eve) and Geelong again (then the likely respite of decimated Richmond). Lose three of the next four, and they’d be 7-7 and outside the eight, needing at least six wins from the back nine just to qualify.

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Small defenders, small forwards and midfield run are the areas of most immediate concern. The most alarming number from the SCG – besides the scoreboard – was running bounces, the speedy Swans having 17 to Carlton’s nil, as Chad Warner and Nick Blakey sped away from grasping Blues as if they were the Roadrunner.

Saad, who can be counted on to run and carry from behind the ball, is probably the most crucial of the missing Blues (not counting Weitering), given their lack of overlap and run compared with Sydney. Happily, Saad is slated to return for the Suns game, with Motlop also a chance.

Docherty, alas, will not be back this year to mop up ground balls in defence, while Zac Williams – who’s had a star-crossed run since crossing from the Giants on big coin – isn’t really picking up the slack.

Nic Newman, the ex-Swan, continues to get a truckload of the ball in defence, but the Blues were exposed on the deck by the sharper Swans. In attack, Curnow and McKay started with menace and were subsequently starved by a combination of one-way midfield traffic and poor quality entries.

Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean mightn’t be in the postcode of Curnow and McKay, but they competed well (helped once Weitering left the field) and the Blues, conversely, don’t have midfielders who can kick goals like Isaac Heeney and Warner (three each), nor a small forward of gadfly Tom Papley’s calibre.

Carlton need Will Hayward, a free agent, more than Sydney, but if the Swans can find some salary cap space (not much there), you’d wonder why Hayward would leave.

Carlton people, within the club and outside, can console themselves with the fact that the Swans are the clear-cut top seed. The Blues will regain Saad and Cerra hopefully will right his hamstring issues and Weitering recover swiftly.

“You’re never too sure what the actual damage is until maybe 48 hours later,” said Voss of the irreplaceable Weitering.

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The Blues, at their best, can test and sometimes beat the best. Their victory over the Giants was their high watermark to date, albeit they relied then on Walsh and Patrick Cripps to completely take over at the centre bounces, a longshot scenario versus Sydney’s ballistic midfield. Sydney are just about the worst possible opponent for Carlton, too, given their pace and foot skills.

In a competition of micro-margins, the Blues don’t have the depth to cover more than a few missing pieces. And right now, there’s more than a few.

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