With a notional majority of more than 24,000 voters in his leafy North Yorkshire constituency, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has (at least in theory) one of the safest Tory seats in Northern England.
He inherited the Richmond patch – which has been held by the party since 1910 – from former Conservative leader William Hague after being parachuted in as a promising candidate in 2015.
But with his Conservative party now facing electoral oblivion as it approaches the July 4 General Election with historic low approval ratings, their local dominance is under threat like never before.
Read more: Have your say: Which issues matter most to you this election?
The latest YouGov analysis suggests that Mr Sunak’s share of the vote is predicted to shrink from 64% in the 2019 election to 41% in the redrawn Richmond and Northallerton seat this year.
And when The Northern Agenda politics newsletter spent time in the market town of Richmond talking to local voters, it was a struggle to find any who would publicly commit to voting for him.
Kelly-Anne Hill, who works as postmistress in the town’s Post Office, voted Conservative for the first time in 2019 but now says she is undecided.
Hear more from voters in Richmond on The Northern Agenda politics podcast – click below to listen to this week’s episode:
“I think he is flagging at the moment, to be honest,” she said. “I watched the [ITV leaders’] debate the other night, and I don’t think he came off very well. That’s my honest opinion. I don’t trust what he’s saying now, I did in the beginning. I don’t so much now.”
Ms Hill says the biggest thing any politician could do to win her vote is tackle the crisis facing the NHS.
“Over the last year, I’ve actually gone BUPA, because I’m that frightened about where the NHS is going. So I’m actually paying for private health care at the minute. Someone who’s worked all a life, I shouldn’t have to be doing that.”
Despite her misgivings about Mr Sunak she’s also unimpressed by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and says: “I just don’t know who’s going to do much better at the moment, I just don’t have a lot of faith, to be honest, in any of them.”
Charles Jackson, 73, a retired engineer who lives in the nearby village of Eppleby, says of Mr Sunak: “He seems a decent enough sort of guy, whether he’s the right person to be Prime Minister I’m not quite certain.”
Asked how he’ll vote this time he pauses before answering. “You’ve got me there,” he says. “I don’t know. I’ve always voted Conservative before but I’m open now.
“The trouble is I don’t know who to vote for, I don’t particularly want Labour in but the Conservatives have been in that long, I don’t know whether they’re doing the right thing or not at the moment.”
Health is a big issue for him too, and he adds: “They keep promising everything, ‘we’re going to shorten the queues’, but it doesn’t get any better. In fact it gets worse.
“We have one dentist in the town now, and we’re lucky we can get in, but when you see the social media, a lot of people can’t even get a dentist.”
Catherine Millar, who lives nearby and works for the children’s charity Magic Breakfast, says Richmond has hidden poverty despite its reputation as a leafy area. It’s the joint 48th most affluent constituency in England and Wales, level with Surrey Heath.
And she describes the austerity cuts of recent years as “an absolutely dreadful experiment based on flawed science”. She adds: “We’ve got one in five children going to school hungry in our country. It’s an absolute crying shame.”
“It’s the first time that I’ve ever definitely been set on voting Labour. But if there was a sniff of us being able to unseat the Prime Minister from his seat, then I would look at voting tactically.
“I think the Lib Dems would be the only ones who would stand a chance against him. But yeah, I think we need a Labor Government to help those children living in poverty.”
Retired welder Stephen-Paul Jennings, 67, believes most people are now disengaged with politics.
“Doesn’t matter which party it is, they’re going to promise you everything, and then they’re going to put taxes up, because they’ve got a £52 billion GDP hole they’ve got to fill and the only way they can do that is to put up taxes.”
Locals in Richmond spoke a few hours before Mr Sunak committed a costly blunder by departing early from an event in Normandy marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. He later apologised and begged for forgiveness from voters.
The move is unlikely to go down well in his constituency, where the local Catterick Garrison is the largest British Army base in the country with a population of about 13,000
Tom Jones, a Conservative councillor in North Yorkshire whose Scotton & Lower Wensleydale falls in Mr Sunak’s constituency, said he found the PM’s decision to leave the D-Day event early “incredible”.
(Image: Chris Jackson/PA Wire)
He said Mr Sunak had earned praise as a constituency MP for his campaigning work on the local Friarage hospital and helping to change the fishing season on the River Ure to help the local tourism trade.
Cllr Jones said: “He’s done some great work as a constituency MP, but it’s one of those things where I think the thermostat of public opinion just has overtaken him, because, he is now to blame for whatever is wrong with the country, and he is absorbing the blame of 14 years – regardless of whether it’s actually his responsibility.”
He said there were a lot of military votes up for grabs in Richmond and Northallerton because of the presence of Catterick Garrison and the number of people who settle in the area after working there.
And he added: “For somebody who represents that many servicemen as Prime Minister and as Member of Parliament, I just find it incredible.”
Here are the candidates in Richmond and Northallerton on July 4:
- Jason Barnett, independent
- Count Binface, the Count Binface Party
- Liberal Democrat Daniel Callaghan
- Angie Campion, independent
- Louise Dickens (Workers Party)
- Kevin Foster (Green Party)
- Rio Goldhammer (Yorkshire Party)
- Niko Omilana, independent
- Brian Richmond, independent
- Sir Archibald Stanton, Monster Raving Loony
- Rishi Sunak, Conservative
- Lee Taylor, Reform UK
- Tom Wilson, Labour
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