State auto sales forecast to rise after 12.6% drop in 2022

Hawaii auto sales stalled in 2022 amid supply chain issues and vehicle production cutbacks and fell 12.6% to its third-worst level in 11 years.

But the outlook for this year is more promising with Hawaii Auto Outlook projecting new retail light-­vehicle registrations to rise 6.1% , to 50,650, after reaching just 47,750 in 2022.

Other than the COVID-19 year of 2020 when there were 43,709 sales, the only other time in more than a decade that the number of sales was lower was in 2012 when they dropped to 42,181.

“Pent-up demand is accumulating as new vehicles sales remain below baseline … levels,” wrote Hawaii Auto Outlook Editor Jeffrey Foltz, who produces the quarterly report for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association.

HADA also noted that its longtime executive director, Dave Rolf, retired at the end of 2022 after 22 years at the helm.

Despite lower sales, the state’s 12.6% decline in 2022 still outperformed the 14.9% drop nationwide. In addition, statewide sales in the fourth quarter inched up 1.1% to 11,368 from 11,243 in the year-earlier period, according to the report due out today.

Foltz estimated that about 25,000 new vehicle purchases will have been postponed since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 through the end of this year, about 45% of sales in an average year.

“Vehicle transaction prices are likely to drift lower as supplies become more in line with demand,” he said. “These two factors will give a boost to the market that should offset the negatives.”

Foltz cites the negatives as lingering supply chain issues and weakening new vehicle affordability due to high inflation, increasing interest rates, slower economic growth and falling trade in values. Household incomes are increasing, but not fast enough to keep pace with inflation, he said.

“The stimulative impact resulting from pent-up demand will be tempered due to softer economic conditions, but sales rates should still recover from current levels,” Foltz said.

Registrations fell in all four of the state’s major markets, declining 14.6% on Oahu, 9.7% on Maui, 7.6% on Hawaii island and 6.1% on Kauai.

New-vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, but the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another. The data is based on county DMV registrations.

Light trucks, which include vans, SUVs and pickups, remained the vehicles of choice in 2022 with a market share of 77.6%, compared with 22.4% for cars.

Toyota was the bestselling brand in Hawaii in 2022 with a 28.8% market share, followed by Honda at 9.6%, Nissan and Ford at 7.1% and Kia at 6%.

The market share for the top-selling models in 2022 were To­yota Tacoma, 8.3%; Toyota 4Runner, 6.1%; To­yota RAV4, 3.6%; Toyota Corolla, 3.2%; and Tesla Model Y, 2.7%.

The best sellers in primary segments: small cars, Toyota Corolla (30.1% market share); midsize and large cars, To­yota Camry (45.8%); new luxury cars, Tesla Model 3 (47%); full-size pickup, Chevrolet Silverado (28.7%); subcompact SUV, Subaru Crosstrek (20.1%); compact SUV, Toyota RAV4 (24.2%); three-row midsize SUV, To­yota Highlander (21.3%); and luxury compact SUV, Tesla Model Y (42.2%).

Gasoline-powered vehicles accounted for 80.9% of the market in 2022, but the alternative energy market continued to make inroads and held a 19.1% share. The battery electric vehicle market share increased in Hawaii to 8.3% in 2022 from 7.3% in 2021. Other market shares included hybrid, 7.6%; plug-in hybrids, 1.9%; and diesel, 1.3%. The top three selling brands in the state for electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid in 2022 were Tesla, 30.8%, Toyota, 23.1% and Kia, 9.6%.