PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Projected Order of Finish
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, PGA
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, PGA, SAG, WGA
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR, WGA
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Projected Order of Finish
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, DGA, HFPA
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, DGA, HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, NBR
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) BAFTA, NSFC
*BEST ACTOR*
Projected Order of Finish
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA, SAG
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
*BEST ACTRESS*
Projected Order of Finish
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) — podcast LAFCA, NSFC
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Projected Order of Finish
Troy Kotsur (CODA) BAFTA, CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) — podcast BAFTA
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Projected Order of Finish
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) BAFTA, FI, IFP
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Projected Order of Finish
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, USC
CODA (Sian Heder) BAFTA, CCA, WGA
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) — podcast (Villeneuve) BAFTA, CCA, USC, WGA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) BAFTA, CCA, FI, IFP, USC
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) BAFTA, LAFCA, NSFC
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Projected Order of Finish
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, WGA
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, WGA
King Richard (Zach Baylin) BAFTA, CCA, WGA
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
Encanto (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, MPSE, NYFCC, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) ANN, BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Luca (Pixar) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) ACE, AFI*, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) ACE, BAFTA, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, MPSE, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, PGA
Attica (Showtime) CCA, DGA, NBR
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
Writing With Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Projected Order of Finish
Drive My Car (Japan) BAFTA, CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) BAFTA, CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
The Hand of God (Italy) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, MPSE
Flee (Denmark) CCA
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune (Greig Fraser) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, LAFCA
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen) ASC, BAFTA, CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, CI, NBR
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA, CDG
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini) BAFTA, CDG
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune (Joe Walker) ACE, BAFTA, CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) ACE, CCA
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin) ACE
King Richard (Pamela Martin) ACE
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum) ACE
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
The Eyes of Tammy Faye BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
Cruella BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
The Suicide Squad MUHS
Coming 2 America MUHS
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune (Hans Zimmer) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA, SCL
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Order of Finish
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA, SCL
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh) ADG
*BEST SOUND*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
West Side Story BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
No Time to Die BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
The Power of the Dog CAS, MPSE
Belfast MPSE
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Projected Order of Finish
Dune BAFTA, CCA, VES
No Time to Die BAFTA, CCA
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings CCA, VES
Free Guy BAFTA
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
The Windshield Wiper
Affairs of the Art BAFTA
Bestia ANN
Robin Robin
BoxBallet
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
The Queen of Basketball
Audible
Lead Me Home
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Projected Order of Finish
The Long Goodbye
Please Hold
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
On My Mind
Source: Hollywood
