PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, SAG
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NYFCC
Possibilities
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer) SAG
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR
Longer Shots
C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer) FI
No Time to Die (MGM/UA, Oct. 8, trailer)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony, Dec. 17, trailer)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight, Oct. 22, trailer)
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Feb. 25, 2022, trailer)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, NBR
Possibilities
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA
Longer Shots
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Rebecca Hall (Passing)
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon) FI
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA, SAG
Possibilities
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA
Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)
Longer Shots
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA
Daniel Craig (No Time to Die) — podcast
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey) FI
Riz Ahmed (Encounter)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Possibilities
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) LAFCA
Jennifer Hudson (Respect) SAG
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA
Longer Shots
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFPA
Tessa Thompson (Passing) IFP
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) — podcast
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) SAG
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Possibilities
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, SAG
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA, SAG
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Longer Shots
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
Al Pacino (House of Gucci)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Benicio del Toro (The French Dispatch)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP
Possibilities
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast SAG
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Longer Shots
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC
Anya Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho)
Ann Dowd (Mass) CCA
Ana de Armas (No Time to Die)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) LAFCA
Possibilities
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
CODA (Sian Heder) CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR
Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
Longer Shots
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
The Last Duel (Ben Affleck, Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener)
The Green Knight (David Lowery) FI
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA
King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA
Possibilities
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR
Longer Shots
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) IFP
Spencer (Steven Knight)
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker) IFP
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Titane (Julia Ducournau)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Encanto (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Mitchells vs. The Machines (Netflix) ANN, CCA, NYFCC
Flee (Neon) ANN, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Luca (Pixar) ANN, CCA, HFPA
Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA
Possibilities
Sing 2 (Illumination/Universal) ANN
Belle (GKIDS) ANN
My Sunny Maad (Negativ) HFPA
Vivo (Netflix)
Longer Shots
The Summit of the Gods (Netflix) ANN
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko (GKIDS) ANN
Pompo the Cinephile (GKIDS) ANN
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) AFI*, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC, PGA
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
Simple As Water (HBO) PGA
The Rescue (Nat Geo) CCA, CEH, NBR, PGA
Possibilities
Attica (Showtime) CCA, NBR
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) CEH
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI
Longer Shots
In the Same Breath (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA
Writing with Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
Faya Dayi (Janus Films) CEH, IDA, IFP
Julia (Sony Classics)
President (Greenwich) IFP
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Flee (Denmark) CCA
Possibilities
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland) NBR
Playground (Belgium)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Longer Shots
Hive (Kosovo)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) FI
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Frontrunners
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Dune (Greig Fraser) CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) CCA, LAFCA
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) CCA, CI, NBR
Possibilities
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten) CCA
No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)
Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)
Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)
Last Night in Soho (Chung-hoon Chung)
The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)
The Last Duel (Dariusz Wolski)
House of Gucci (Dariusz Wolski)
Longer Shots
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)
Spencer (Claire Mithon)
King Richard (Robert Elswit)
Titane (Ruben Impens)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Alice Brooks)
Being the Ricardos (Jeff Cronenweth)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Mauro Fiore)
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Frontrunners
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA
Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) CCA
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) CCA
The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero)
Possibilities
Licorice Pizza (Mark Bridges)
Coming 2 America (Ruth E. Carter)
House of Gucci (Janty Yates) CCA
Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
Last Night in Soho (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Longer Shots
Belfast (Charlotte Walker)
The Power of the Dog (Kirsty Cameron)
Mothering Sunday (Sandy Powell)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mary Zophres)
Being the Ricardos (Susan Lyall)
Passing (Marci Rodgers)
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Frontrunners
West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA
Dune (Joe Walker) CCA
Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile) CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) CCA
Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) LAFCA
Possibilities
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Leigh Folsom & Jeffrey Ford)
No Time to Die (Tom Cross & Elliot Graham)
Licorice Pizza (Andy Jurgensen)
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)
The Lost Daughter (Affonso Gonçalves)
The Hand of God (Cristiano Travaglioli)
The French Dispatch (Andrew Weisblum)
Longer Shots
CODA (Geraud Brisson)
House of Gucci (Claire Simpson)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
Being the Ricardos (Alan Baumgarten) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Cam McLauchlin)
Last Night in Soho (Paul Machliss)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen & Lucian Johnston)
Titane (Jean-Christophe Bouzy)
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Frontrunners
Dune CCA
West Side Story
Cruella CCA
House of Gucci CCA
The Eyes of Tammy Faye CCA
Possibilities
No Time to Die
Cyrano
Coming 2 America
Nightmare Alley CCA
The Suicide Squad
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Frontrunners
Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA, SCL
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA
Possibilities
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA, SCL
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL
Spencer (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, SCL
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
Longer Shots
The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart) SCL
Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)
Candyman (Robert A.A. Lowe)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
Possibilities
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr. (Sing 2) HMMA
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hun & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Longer Shots
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA, SCL
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“Dream Girl” — Idina Menzel & Laura Veltz (Cinderella)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Belfast (Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA
The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) CCA
Possibilities
Cyrano (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
Licorice Pizza (Florencia Martin & Ryan Watson)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)
Being the Ricardos (Ellen Brill & Jon Hutman)
Cruella (Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton)
Longer Shots
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sam Avila & Darren Gilford)
Spencer (Gu Hendrix-Dyas & Yesim Zolan)
Last Night in Soho (Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)
House of Gucci (Arthur Max & Letizia Santucci)
The Last Duel (Judy Farr & Arthur Max)
Passing (Nora Mendis & Paige Mitchell)
*BEST SOUND*
Frontrunners
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
Belfast
Tick, Tick… Boom!
Possibilities
Spider-Man: No Way Home
A Quiet Place Part II
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Frontrunners
Dune CCA
No Time to Die CCA
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix Resurrections CCA
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings CCA
Possibilities
Eternals
Black Widow
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
Affairs of the Art
Angakusajaujug The Shaman’s Apprentice
Bad Seeds
Bestia ANN
Boxballet
Flowing Home
Mum Is Pouring Rain
The Musician
Namoo
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Step into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
Águilas
Audible
A Broken House
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Facility
Lead Me Home
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie & the Baron
Takeover
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
*BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
Distances
The Dress
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Tala’vision
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen
Source: Hollywood
