PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (Universal)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Women Talking (UAR)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
The Woman King (Sony)
She Said (Universal)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Tár (Focus)
Major Threats
Till (UAR)
Close (A24)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Possibilities
The Whale (A24)
Empire of Light (Searchlight)
Armageddon Time (Focus)
Nope (Universal)
The Good Nurse (Netflix)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
The Inspection (A24)
White Noise (Netflix)
The Son (Sony Classics)
RRR (Variance)
Still to See
Avatar: The Way of Water (Fox)
Babylon (Paramount)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)
Pinocchio (Netflix)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Todd Field (Tár)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
Major Threats
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Lukas Dhont (Close)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Maria Schrader (She Said)
Chinoye Chukwu (Till)
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Possibilities
James Gray (Armageddon Time)
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Sam Mendes (Empire of Light)
Jordan Peele (Nope)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Tobias Lindholm (The Good Nurse)
Noah Baumbach (White Noise)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Bardo)
Still to See
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Guillermo del Toro (Pinocchio)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Adam Sandler (Hustle)
Major Threats
Bill Nighy (Living)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)
Hugh Jackman (The Son)
Possibilities
Song Kang Ho (Broker)
Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave)
Eden Dambrine (Close)
Adam Driver (White Noise)
Daniel Giménez Cacho (Bardo)
Cooper Raiff (Cha Cha Real Smooth)
Nicolas Cage (Butcher’s Crossing)
Still to See
Christian Bale (The Pale Blue Eye)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Winston Duke (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)
Sam Worthington (Avatar: The Way of Water)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Major Threats
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse)
Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Vicki Krieps (Corsage)
Lea Seydoux (One Fine Morning)
Possibilities
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Mia Goth (Pearl)
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Florence Pugh (The Wonder)
Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling)
Still to See
Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)
Anna Diop (Nanny)
Margot Robbie (Babylon)
Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Major Threats
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time)
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Bokeem Woodbine (The Inspection)
Possibilities
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Jack O’Connell (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness)
Igor Van Dessel (Close)
Still to See
Harry Melling (The Pale Blue Eye)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Claire Foy (Women Talking)
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)
Major Threats
Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Jennifer Ehle (She Said)
Samantha Morton (She Said)
Patricia Clarkson (She Said)
Possibilities
Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
Judith Ivey (Women Talking)
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Sadie Sink (The Whale)
Greta Gerwig (White Noise)
Laura Dern (The Son)
Still to See
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Michelle Monaghan (Nanny)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
Major Threats
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Possibilities
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
The Son (Christopher Hampton)
Still to See
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Josh Friedman)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Catherine Called Birdy (Lena Dunham)
Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro & Patrick McHale)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
Nope (Jordan Peele)
Major Threats
Tár (Todd Field)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Possibilities
Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
Elvis (Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Broker (Hirokazu Koreeda)
Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
Bardo (Alejandro G. Inarritu)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Still to See
Babylon (Damien Chazelle)
Nanny (Nikyatu Jusu)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
(*not yet an official submission)
Frontrunners
Close (Belgium)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Corsage (Austria)
Major Threats
Holy Spider (Denmark)*
Possibilities
Bardo (Mexico)*
Still to See
Alcarràs (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
As in Heaven (Denmark)*
Beautiful Beings (Iceland)
Boy from Heaven (Sweden)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
EO (Poland)
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Girl Picture (Finland)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Nostalgia (Italy)
Plan 75 (Japan)
Saint Omer (France)
War Sailor (Norway)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Navalny (HBO Max)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo)
Descendant (Netflix)
Major Threats
Freedom on Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
All That Breathes (HBO)
Sr. (Netflix)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Bad Axe (IFC)
The Return of Tanya Tucker (Sony Classics)
Moonage Daydream (Amazon)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Classics)
The Janes (HBO)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Possibilities
Icarus: The Aftermath (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In Her Hands (Netflix)
Civil (Netflix)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (CNN)
Bitterbrush (Magnolia)
Turn Every Page (Sony Classics)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics)
My Sister Liv (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Jerry Lee Lewis: Trouble in Mind (A24)
Still to See
Aftershock (Hulu)
A Compassionate Spy (still seeking U.S. distribution)
I Didn’t See You There (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Exiles (still seeking U.S. distribution)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney)
Is That Black Enough for You?!? (Netflix)
Louis Armstrong’s Black and Blues (Apple)
Mickey: The Story of a Mouse (Disney)
Mija (Disney)
Nothing Compares (Showtime)
The Princess (HBO)
Punch 9 for Harold Washington (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Sidney (Apple)
The Volcano: Rescue from Whakaari (Netflix)
Wildcat (Amazon)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Drake & Giveon
“On My Way” (Marry Me) — Jennifer Lopez
Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Vegas” (Elvis) — Doja Cat
“Not Alone” (Devotion) — Joe Jonas
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home” (Bones and All) — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Possibilities
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph
“We Are Art” (We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura) — Annalaura di Luggo & Paky Di Maio
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