Treasury yields rise as investors look to Fed meeting, inflation data

U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and key inflation data due this week.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up 5 basis points at 4.479%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last 2 basis points higher at 4.889%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Due this week are the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy guidance, as well as fresh key economic data, including inflation data.

The Fed is due to meet Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting. The same holds true for the Fed’s July meeting, and traders were last pricing in a 50% chance of rates being cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors will, however, be closely following guidance issued by the central bank this week, as well as the post-meeting press conference, scanning them for hints about the outlook for rates and the economy.

Also this week, the consumer and producer price index reports for May are set to be published, providing the latest inflation insights.

Policymakers have repeatedly said they are looking for more data evidence to be sure that inflation is easing sustainably toward the 2% target before making interest rate cuts. That has prompted many investors to hope for economic data that signals the economy is cooling.

Last week, however, the May jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected, increasing by 272,000 during the month. That is higher than April’s downwardly revised 165,000 and above the previous estimate of 190,000.