Albanese backed the project before the 2019 election when he was a frontbencher rather than opposition leader. Labor did not promise the project before the recent May 2022 election.

Infrastructure Minister Catherine King decided not to proceed with it last year as she looked for cost savings in the burgeoning rail and road pipeline, saying the Coalition’s budgeted $225 million was nowhere near enough to fund a project Labor said would cost $1.5 billion. The funding was not set to kick in until next decade.

The Liberal candidate, 31-year-old Frankston City Council Mayor Nathan Conroy, is quite well-known in the seat, according to sources in both parties.

But Labor sources said research on voter attitudes showed the council itself was quite unpopular. Labor will highlight the council’s actions and seek to pin them to Conroy, who was elected to council in 2020.

The tactic is reminiscent of the Howard government’s attacks on then-opposition leader Mark Latham’s record as a mayor before entering parliament.

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Asked on Thursday whether the Dunkley contest would be won and lost on voters’ reaction to Labor’s income tax backflip, Albanese said “No.”

“They’ll make a judgment on a whole range of issues. And the idea that you sitting in the studio there, or me sitting in my office … can work out exactly why people will vote is very bold,” he said on ABC’s Radio National.

The Coalition’s internal research shows voters in Dunkley, a mortgage belt seat reflective of many marginal electorates across Australia, react strongly to being reminded of the $450 million Labor spent running the Voice referendum.

Dutton mentioned the referendum twice in an interview on radio station 2GB on Thursday as he argued Labor could not be trusted to go beyond its stage 3 tax cut changes and overturn pledges to avoid Shorten-era policies on negative gearing and franking credits.

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