Israel may delay assault on Rafah in exchange for hostages

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Israel has said that it would be willing to delay a long-planned assault on Hamas’s last stronghold in the Gaza Strip if a deal to secure the release of Israeli hostages can be agreed.

Hamas said over the weekend that it was studying a new proposal by Egypt and Israel that, according to reports, would lead to a halt in the fighting and a further withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza in return for the release of two to three dozen of the Israelis seized during the militant group’s October 7 assault on the Jewish state.

Israel has begun preparations for the civilian evacuation of Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city and the last population centre controlled by Hamas, ahead of an expected attack that could come “within weeks”, according to one Israeli official.

Yet Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, said on Saturday that the government would agree to postpone the threatened incursion into Rafah, now home to more than 1mn displaced Palestinians, if a ceasefire-for-hostage deal came to fruition.

“If there’s a deal, we will suspend the operation,” said Katz, from the ruling Likud party, to Israel’s Channel 12.

But in a sign of the domestic political hurdles ahead of any deal, Katz added that any ceasefire should not harm Israel’s war aim of eliminating Hamas as both a military and governing force in Gaza. A Rafah operation, according to Israeli officials and analysts, was essential to achieving both objectives.

“We will do everything possible to return the hostages without harming the goals of the war,” Katz added in the interview.

Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas — mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt — have stalled for months over fundamental gaps between the two sides.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to continue the campaign until “total victory” over Hamas. He has also refused to countenance ending the war until that elusive goal is met — even at the cost of the hostages, according to opposition leaders and families of those Israelis still being held in Gaza.

Hamas officials have held out for nothing less than a complete end to the fighting and a full Israeli military withdrawal from the shattered coastal enclave, as the group continues to hold 133 Israelis hostage as its sole bargaining chip, at least 35 of whom are believed by Israeli intelligence to be dead already.

The most recent Egyptian proposal seeks to bridge these differences — through a partial hostage release in return for a temporary ceasefire — although similar efforts have faltered in recent months.

In a likely attempt to increase domestic pressure on the Israeli government, Hamas in recent days released staged videos of three male hostages, one with serious injuries, in which they were seen imploring Netanyahu to do more to secure their release.

Hardliners in Netanyahu’s cabinet have already come out against this latest offer and even threatened the stability of the long-serving premier’s governing coalition.

“The ‘Egyptian deal’ comprises a dangerous Israeli capitulation and a terrible victory for Hamas,” ultranationalist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich wrote on Friday on X.

According to a person familiar with the Israeli government’s position, Israel had shown flexibility in the hostage negotiations but would not agree to end the war and was insisting that its army would remain in Gaza.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi opposed a Rafah operation in a televised speech on Thursday, warning of “catastrophic consequences” if thousands of Palestinians fled across the border into Egypt.

The White House has also voiced its concerns, and demanded Israel implement a “credible” evacuation plan for civilians in Rafah ahead of any Israeli operation.

The White House said Joe Biden reiterated that view in a phone conversation with Netanyahu on Sunday. The US president also stressed the need for continued progress in the delivery of humanitarian assistance into Gaza, including through new northern crossings starting this week, according to a White House statement.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, which is based in the occupied West Bank, on Sunday urged the US to prevent Israel from attacking Rafah.

“We hope that Israel would stop this attack. And we call on the [US] to ask Israel not to proceed with the Rafah operation, because America is the only country able to prevent Israel from committing this crime,” he told a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Riyadh.

Foreign ministers from the six Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan met in the Saudi capital to discuss the latest developments ahead of a meeting with their American counterpart Antony Blinken scheduled for Monday. 

Reports suggested Blinken might also visit Israel during his trip to the region.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Sunday that pushing for a temporary ceasefire was “right at the top of the list” for Blinken in the Middle East.

Kirby added that Blinken would be “talking to the Israelis about their intentions and their thinking about Rafah”, and said the Israelis had assured the White House “they won’t go into Rafah until we’ve had a chance to really share our perspectives and concerns with them”.

Additional reporting by Lauren Fedor in Washington