Getty Images Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper
Today we have a packed MLB schedule with 17 games thanks to 2 doubleheaders on this Saturday schedule which offers plenty of betting opportunities for bettors.
First 5 inning bets have gained significant popularity as they offer reduced risk and increased predictability. This is because you have a clearer picture of the starting pitchers for those initial innings, eliminating concerns about bullpen performance.
Below are a couple F5 bets our AI-powered projection model likes for tonight’s games.
MLB F5 Bets
F5 Result: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-166, FanDuel)
When considering the matchup between Spencer Turnbull and Marco Gonzales, it’s clear that Turnbull is the pitcher to back early in the season while Gonzales is one to be cautious about, particularly due to their upcoming face-off.
Gonzales has performed decently in his 2 starts, boasting a 2.45 ERA, but deeper statistical analysis reveals concerning indicators such as a high expected ERA (xERA) and batting average against (xBA). These stats, especially troubling in a hitter-friendly park like Citizens Bank Park, raise red flags.
In contrast, Turnbull has yet to concede an earned run this season, with impressive strikeout numbers and minimal hits and walks allowed. His advanced metrics paint a picture of genuine skill rather than just early luck, with strong rankings in key pitching categories.
Although the Phillies bullpen is questionable, Turnbull’s performance coupled with the offensive firepower of players like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber should give the Philadelphia Phillies an edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Our model gives the Phillies a 69% chance to win today against the Pirates.
F5 Result: Minnesota Twins ML (-142, FanDuel)
The Minnesota Twins have struggled against right-handed pitchers at the beginning of the 2024 season, a notable difference from their performance in 2023. Their upcoming matchup on Saturday against Kenta Maeda, who may be showing signs of age catching up to him, adds another layer to their offensive challenges. Maeda’s performance this season has been disappointing, with a noticeable decline from his past form. While he used to be plagued by bad luck, this year he’s been hit hard, issuing walks and displaying a below-average strikeout rate.
On the other side, Joe Ryan will take the mound for the Twins, having started the season impressively. Despite facing some hard contact, the right-handed pitcher has excelled in controlling walks and racking up strikeouts.
Joe Ryan looks primed to have a good 20204 season. He has 12 strikeouts with just 1 walk in his first 2 starts. His chase rate is very good as well and he is allowing more grounders than he has in the past.
The Twins ranked top 5 in wRC+ last season and hitters Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff have over a .300 xwOBA against righties. This seems like a really good bounce back spot for the Twins offense to get going after a rather slow start to the season. Our model gives the Twins a 59% chance to win today against the Detroit Tigers.
Lock of the Day
F5 Result: New York Mets ML (-158, FanDuel)
While the Kansas City Royals have started the season more favorably than the New York Mets, today’s play is primarily influenced by the starting pitching matchups.
Taking the mound for the Royals is right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh. Marsh faced challenges during his rookie season, posting a 3-9 record with a 5.69 ERA over 17 appearances. Although he has shown improvement this year with a 3.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, certain metrics suggest that his success might be somewhat attributed to luck. Marsh ranks below the 42nd percentile in expected batting average and hard-hit rate, indicating potential regression in his performance.
On the opposing side, the Mets will rely on left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea. Manaea has had an outstanding beginning to the 2024 season, boasting a 1-0 record accompanied by a remarkable 0.82 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across his initial 2 starts.
Moreover, his previous encounter with the Royals in April 2023 showcased his dominance. During that game, Manaea stifled the Royals’ offense, conceding merely 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings while striking out 8 batters. Our model gives the Mets a 55% chance to win today against the Royals.
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