Ordinary weather is now extraordinary, as Sydney braces for more rain

Bradshaw said climate instability would continue for a few decades, but making serious cuts to greenhouse emissions now would have a big impact later this century, and Australia could influence the global outcome as a big fossil fuel exporter and potential clean energy superpower.

England said warmer ocean water in the Coral and Tasman seas had increased humidity in the atmosphere, increasing the odds of heavy rainfalls on the East Coast. That is why the Australian summer experienced the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of the wet El Nino, a climate driver that usually means hot, dry conditions.

The melting of sea ice and glaciers in Antarctica further compounds the long-term outlook not only because of sea level rises, but because the cooler meltwater could interrupt the ocean warming trends. Research institute Risk Frontiers says the assumption that climate change would mean a more El Nino-like future for Australia – more droughts, higher bushfire risks, more heatwaves – might be wrong. If the Antarctic meltwater cools the Pacific Ocean, it could mean Australia’s future is more La Nina, the climate driver that generally means cool, rainy conditions.

CSIRO agriculture scientist Lindsay Bell said the increasing climate variability was challenging for farmers, and “wet seasons can be just as challenging to manage as dry seasons for most dryland producers”.

In mid-April the Bureau of Meteorology had predicted it was more likely than not to be a dry May on the east coast. Instead, it has rained in Sydney every day of May so far, with more to come.

Dr Andrew King, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, said weather forecasting for the few days ahead was increasingly accurate, but seasonal outlooks remained difficult.

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Sydney’s Observatory Hill weather station is set to record its 10th day in a row of rain by 9am on Friday. Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Jordan Notara said the rain streak was unlikely to break the record set in 2022 when it rained for 17 days in a row.

Notara said the Sydney forecast was for showers throughout Thursday and Friday, followed by a wet Saturday with potential for localised flash flooding in Sydney and the Illawarra.

Notara said the weather was likely to clear by next Monday or Tuesday, and there was a chance the sun could return by Sunday, in time for Mother’s Day.