Panama Canal traffic recovers from drought caused by El Niño, study finds

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Panama Canal shipping traffic has begun to pick up after some alleviation in the drought which international scientists say was driven by low rainfall linked to the natural weather phenomenon El Niño, rather than to climate change.

The levels of water remain much lower than usual, however, after the dry conditions that left vessels unable to navigate the shipping channel and caused huge disruption to global supply chains.  

In April, arrivals of ships in the canal reached 739 from 1026 the year before. This compares with a low of 692 in February, according to data from Marine Traffic, after more than six months of disruption.  

Water levels in Lake Gatún — the rain-fed reservoir used by the canal — reached record lows in June last year and remained so until the middle of March this year.

The Panama Canal Authority was forced to restrict passage through the canal, and ships were queueing for weeks in order to transit.

The country is generally one of the world’s wettest nations. In the upcoming May to December rainy season, the canal water level can be expected to rise by more than 2 metres.

But last year the naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon, which involves the warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, caused very low rainfall, according to a study released this week by the World Weather Attribution group of scientists who examine extreme weather patterns.

Annual rainfall in 2023 was down by about a quarter compared to normal levels, and the researchers said it was Panama’s third driest year on record.

El Niño had doubled the likelihood of the low 2023 rainfall, the researchers found, after examining weather records and simulating climate scenarios. It was the El Niño effect on lower rainfall, rather than the warmer atmosphere caused by greenhouse gases, behind the drought, they concluded.

Water shortages for the community in Panama were less severe than the previous droughts, said Maja Vahlberg, risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

“Restrictions on shipping through the Canal ensured Lake Gatún didn’t fall to dangerous levels, and people in Panama didn’t face water shortages like they did in 2015 and 2016,” she said. Those years also involved El Niño, as did the second worst year on record in 1997-1998.

The WWA scientists warned that authorities may in future be forced to again restrict shipping to ensure drinking water supplies, particularly in El Niño years.

The Lake Gatún reservoir faces continued pressure from increased shipping through the canal, which was extended in recent years, as well as its growing population, the scientists behind the WWA study said.

The freight of dry bulk goods, generally of lower value than other commodities, had fallen sharply during the drought, said Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler, as delays raised concerns about higher costs.

Bids to transit the canal hit all-time highs in response to the drought conditions. A record $4mn was paid by ships to skip the queue at its worst last year.

“Because [dry bulk cargo] is the cheapest of the lot, higher crossing fees through Panama translate to higher freight per tonne of cargo,” said Bhanu. “Dry bulk carriers would rather take a longer route than pay much higher price per tonne on low valued cargo.”

Taking the longer route, which adds thousands of kilometres to the journey, in turn causes a greater environmental impact as a result of further emissions.

A typical journey from Shanghai to New York around the Magellan Strait at the southern tip of South America, rather than via the Panama Canal, would take an extra 23.5 days, or 6,239 nautical miles (11,555km) further, according to data from MarineTraffic.

The longer route would generate an additional 1,812 tonnes of carbon dioxide, according to MarineTraffic.

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