Treasurer Cameron Dick has blamed the state’s housing crisis on a “population explosion we did not anticipate”.

In his budget speech, and in speaking with the media, Dick reiterated how the population increase in 2022-23 was 60 per cent higher than forecast – “tens of thousands more people who need somewhere to call home”.

“This year, population growth is rising so fast that upward revisions are being revised again, almost as soon as they are published,” he said.

Queensland population, Actual less Budget forecasts by iterationCredit: Queensland Government

While the Labor government has announced plans to increase supply, there is little relief in the budget for buyers.

As already announced, the government will lift the stamp duty concession for first home buyers – the threshold will be $700,000, tapering to a new cap of $800,000 – which Dick acknowledged was still below the median house price in Brisbane.

In 2024-2025, Treasury expects to collect $6.8 billion in stamp duty – $1.2 billion more than forecast in the last budget.

Queensland has recorded the largest employment growth of any state or territory since March 2020, at 366,900 people.

The state’s unemployment rate averaged 3.7 per cent in 2022-23, its lowest year-average unemployment rate since ABS monthly data began in 1978.

The Queensland budget predicted as tightness in the labour market “continues to unwind gradually”, the unemployment rate was expected to edge slightly higher over the next four years, but remain low by historical standards.

The unemployment rate was expected to be 4.5 per cent in 2024-25, increasing to 4.75 per cent for the following three years.

Employment growth since pre COVID March 2020, by stateCredit: Queensland Government

Make no mistake, this is a cost-of-living budget.

Treasurer Cameron Dick mentions the “cost of living” 19 times in the budget speech he is delivering at Queensland parliament this afternoon.

Cameron Dick speaks to journalists during the budget lockup.Credit: Matt Dennien

Dick says there are $11.2 billion in cost-of-living concessions in the Miles government’s first budget, including electricity rebates, cutting the cost of light vehicle registration by 20 per cent and slashing public transport fares to 50 cents.

Dick says he’s mindful of inflation, and one-third of the Brisbane consumer price index basket used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is made up of transport and housing costs, including energy.

Queensland Treasury estimates the combined effects of the Miles and federal Labor cost-of-living measures will reduce Brisbane’s CPI growth in 2024-25 by 1.25 percentage points.

All the details of the budget will be revealed at 2pm when the treasurer gives his speech in parliament, but journalists have been scouring through the budget papers since about 8.30am.

Every year on budget day, journalists are invited to a budget lockup at Parliament House and given access to the full papers, but everything they read and file is under strict embargo until 2pm.

Journalists can ask treasury officials questions to better understand budget measures, and the premier and treasurer also hold an embargoed press conference.

There are also light refreshments, such as muffins, water, coffee and wraps.

A separate lockup is held for key stakeholders, such as industry bodies, lobby groups and unions.

When Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick makes his speech in parliament at 2pm today, we’ll be able to share the full details of this year’s state budget.

This will be the fifth of Labor’s budgets put together by Cameron Dick as treasurer.Credit: Jamila Toderas

But what did we already know, before today?

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