Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Arsenal 1-0 Man City

Mikel Arteta was keen to downplay the significance of Arsenal’s meeting with Manchester City in the heat of last season’s title run-in. There was little chance of the Basque coach getting worked up about a game in October.

“It would be a big boost for energy and confidence-wise,” Arteta conceded on the eve of City’s trip to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. “Aside from that and three points, nothing else.”

Yet, the meetings between last season’s top two unambiguously defined the 2022/23 title; City won both fixtures (thereby collecting six more points than Arsenal in those games) and finished the season five points clear of the Gunners.

Arsenal broke an agonising sequence of 12 consecutive Premier League defeats against Manchester City to move two points clear of the champions on Sunday afternoon.

Here’s how that cathartic result has affected Opta‘s prediction for the final standings, suggesting why Arteta may be justified in not getting carried away.

Data via Opta, correct as of 8 October 2023.

Manchester City may have been consigned to their first pair of consecutive Premier League defeats since 2018 but they remain heavy favourites to retain their top-flight crown. However, that’s not to say that Sunday’s loss at the Emirates wasn’t a blow to their ambitions.

City cantered into the weekend with an 86% likelihood of winning a fourth consecutive Premier League crown. That figure has been bumped down to 80.8% but the winners on the weekend are still rank outsiders to finish the campaign above City. Arsenal’s chances of ending a two-decade wait for the top-flight title only stand at 5.5% (up from 3.4% heading into the weekend).

When Pep Guardiola hailed Arsenal as City’s main title challenger this season, he also namechecked Liverpool as a team to watch. Opta’s supercomputer very much agrees.

Before Arsenal and City duked it out in the capital, Liverpool played out a thrilling 2-2 draw with Brighton on the south coast. The Reds had lost their previous two trips to the Amex Stadium and fell behind to a well-taken opener from the exciting Simon Adingra. Mohamed Salah’s brace had Liverpool in front at half-time but Lewis Dunk salvaged a point for the hosts in a helter-skelter encounter.

Two dropped points for Liverpool left Jurgen Klopp’s side in fourth place in the actual table, puting their chances of finishing first in May at 12%.

Tottenham Hotspur are the current league leaders, nestled snuggly ahead of their north London neighbours on goal difference. Ange Postecoglou has encouraged his fans to dream but the statistics don’t offer much cause for fantasy; Spurs boast just a 0.9% chance of claiming the club’s first top-flight title in more than six decades.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League conquerors Newcastle United have been afforded a fractional 0.4% likelihood of finishing first. Much like Liverpool, the Magpies spent Sunday afternoon both behind and ahead before settling on a 2-2 draw with West Ham United.

The Hammers boast a token 0.1% chance of winning the title this year, the same figure as Brighton. Aston Villa, despite being held to a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Sunday, are the only other Premier League club with a non-zero probability of finishing first.

That means that any aspirations of sitting atop the pile in May can be parked by Manchester United and Chelsea, as well as Sheffield United and Luton Town – according to Opta at least.

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