Dalton Knecht

Getty Dalton Knecht rises up for a shot against Texas in the Round of 32.

After surviving a horrendous 3-point shooting night in their Round of 32 game against Texas, the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers set their sights on the No. 3 Creighton Bluejays. The winner secures a bid to the Elite 8 for a date with either Purdue or Gonzaga. Our AI-powered model likes a few Sweet 16 bets in this matchup.

Our model suggests that Dalton Knecht will continue his stellar performance on the glass against Creighton, while Baylor Scheierman could have a tough time getting off clean 3-point looks versus this stifling Tennessee perimeter defense.

See below the analysis for our two dfsPro projections for the Creighton vs. Tennessee game! 

Sweet 16 Bets for March 29

Dalton Knecht Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100) – BetRivers

Knecht is a rock-solid rebounder for his size (6-foot-6) and position (shooting guard). He has averaged just shy of 5 rebounds per game this season. Knecht uses his impressive vertical athleticism and strong, wide frame to crash the glass effectively.

During his 2023-24 campaign, Knecht has averaged just shy of 5 rebounds per game, aiding the Vols on the defensive glass. However, they have struggled at times throughout the season in rebounding. In fact, they rank just 153rd in defensive rebounding percentage in the nation.

Recently, Knecht has been even more active on the glass, bringing down 8 and 9 rebounds in his first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament. I expect him to outperform his rebounding betting line for the third consecutive game.

Creighton is 271st in offensive rebounding percentage this season, so Knecht won’t have to worry much about opponents crashing the glass after misses. The Vols’ frontcourt players will be tied up trying to keep Ryan Kalkbrenner from having a solid rebounding position. 

Our AI-powered model projects Knecht to finish the game with 6.4 rebounds, 1.5 more (+30.61%) than his season average 4.9. At plus-odds, this prop has spectacular value.

Baylor Scheierman Under 2.5 3-Pointers (+112) – BetRivers

Tennessee’s stout perimeter defense could challenge one of the better 3-point shooters in the nation. Scheierman’s 3-point prowess is evident, as he can knock down catch-and-shoot 3s and off-the-dribble 3s at 6-foot-7. 

On the season, Scheierman has hit 3.1 3-pointers per game for the Creighton Bluejays, averaging 37.9% shooting from behind the arc. Creighton’s offensive style (rank 6th in 3s attempted per game in the nation) favors players like Scheierman, who are excellent 3-point shooters. 

However, Scheierman and the Bluejays will be forced to score inside the arc against this Volunteers defense. Tennessee has held opponents to a sub-24% shooting mark from deep so far in the NCAA Tournament, and I expect that trend will continue here. 

Creighton’s offensive attack is impressive, but Tennessee will do everything possible to force the Bluejays to take shots inside the arc, limiting the number of looks Scheierman gets.

Our AI-powered model projects Scheierman to hit merely 2.4 3s in this game versus Tennessee, 0.7 fewer (-22.58%) than his season average. Fade Scheierman’s 3s made in this spot.

One Last Thought

Tennessee survived against the Texas Longhorns in its Round of 32 matchup despite only hitting 1 of its first 21 3-point attempts. The Vols’ ability to find a way to win, even with one of their worst shooting performances of the entire 2023-24 season, bodes well for backing them in this game against an often inconsistent Creighton team.

The Vols have held their first 2 opponents in the NCAA Tournament to only 32.7% shooting from the field and 23.4% from 3-point land, so Creighton could struggle to put up points. The Bluejays rank seventh in 3-point rate in the nation, but Tennessee’s perimeter defense gives it the advantage in this matchup.

With March Madness rolling, stay updated with our daily dfsPro’s Sweet 16 bets and picks!

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