Supercomputer reveals Arsenal and Man City’s chances of winning Premier League title

Another weekend of Premier League football has come to an end and both title challengers kept their ends of the bargain to stay in contention.

Arsenal remain in top spot after despatching Bournemouth 3-0 in Saturday’s early kick-off, but Manchester City showed few signs of feeling the pressure as they crushed Wolves 5-1 thanks to four goals from Erling Haaland.

With the Cityzens boasting a game in hand over the Gunners, who are only a point in front, it’s Pep Guardiola’s side who still hold the cards heading into the final few weeks of the campaign. However, the Premier League delivers surprises when least expected, so a few more twists and turns before the 2023/24 campaign is over can’t be discounted.

With that in mind, here’s the state of play in the title race and how statisticians Opta see the run-in panning out.

It remains all to play for at the top of the table, but not too much has changed in regards to Opta predictions for first place following the weekend’s results.

At the conclusion of Gameweek 34 after beating north London rivals Tottenham, Arsenal had seen their probability of finishing top of the pile jump from 26.6% to 32.5%. Their chances of success have enjoyed another boost but only by 1.6% this time, sitting at 34.1% following the win over Bournemouth.

That means Man City‘s percentage has taken another dip, though not as dramatic as last week’s projections. They remain considerable favourites to claim a fourth league title on the spin, with Opta rating them as 65.9% likely to finish ahead of Mikel Arteta’s side.

Time is running out for Arsenal. While they sit at the top of the table and continue to win their matches, the north Londoners need Man City to crack at some point.

However, the next weekend of league action will give Pep Guardiola’s side the chance to put pressure on Arsenal as they play on Saturday, visiting Fulham at Craven Cottage. The Gunners are then in action a day later when they take on Manchester United, who were absolutely dreadful in a 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace on Monday night.

City’s game in hand arrives the following midweek when they visit Tottenham, with Arsenal desperately needing their local rivals to do them a favour as they hunt a first league title since 2003/04.

The final day sees both teams play at home, with Arsenal battling Everton while Man City entertain West Ham. The championship looks set to be decided in Gameweek 38, but whether there will be blue or red ribbons on the trophy remains to be seen.

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